When uncertainty collides with predictability, keep your guard up

  • Published
  • By Lt. Col. Eric Cathey
  • Commander, 436th Dental Squadron
DOVER AIR FORCE BASE, Del. --  Have you ever seen a black swan?

The sighting of one may not happen during your lifetime, but is it accurate to say they don't exist? Each and every day, we are faced with experiences that carry extreme impact and fall outside the realm of regular expectations. Our life is built on these experiences and how we react.

If you consider the world we live in - your own life and family - how many events have occurred on schedule? Look at your career choice, decisions you make about your children, the victories and failures - how often did these occur according to plan? Although situations may unfold the exact same way day after day, this cannot serve as a basis to predict what is going to happen in the future.

For instance, cattle are fed on a daily basis until the one day they meet their destiny at your dinner table. The predictability of their future can't be based on their prior days of being fed.

Things sometimes move at an enormous pace forcing these two extremes to meet. In the midst of an Operational Readiness Inspection and a host of other evaluations stretched across a wing with energetic and highly talented Airmen, what should our strategy be? We are all aware of the requirements to train and prepare. Units spend countless hours and we make sacrifices to do this exceedingly well throughout the Air Force. Athletes dedicate their whole life in this endeavor. Students "burn the midnight oil" with hopes of acing, or in some cases just passing, that big exam.

Despite the efforts we make towards predictability regarding success, the element of uncertainty may tarnish, postpone or challenge the victory. There is absolutely nothing you can do to avert these two forces from colliding; what you can do to overcome this dilemma is keep your guard up. Continue to be skilled in your craft, and don't become complacent in the way things are normally done. Keep an eye on the possibility of uncertainty, staying postured to react.

It's easy to get sucked up into the negativity realm that swirls around us. This is vexing to the spirit and prevents us from performing to our fullest potential.

Treasure the positive moments that happen each day. In the face of all aridity, these will give you a fighting chance and the power to excel.