DOVER AIR FORCE BASE, Del. -- Hurricane preparation should begin well before a storm appears in the forecast. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Early preparation can help Team Dover Airmen, civilians and families protect themselves, their property and the mission.
For Dover AFB, the most significant potential effects of a hurricane include flooding from rainfall and storm surge, strong winds and heavy rainfall. The area’s low-lying terrain and waterways can cause water levels to rise quickly, affecting roads and transportation throughout the surrounding community.
“Flooding, from not just rainfall but potential storm surge, would be a concern,” said Tech. Sgt. Justin Hanberry, 436th Civil Engineer Squadron Office of Emergency Management. “Much of the area is already low-lying, and there are not many places for significant amounts of water to go.”
Although Dover has not experienced the direct impact of a hurricane in the past 30 years, the installation and surrounding area have experienced indirect effects from Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Isaias in 2020. The severity of any future effects will depend on a storm’s path and strength. Even when Dover is outside the center of a storm’s forecast cone, the installation may still experience flooding, power outages and strong winds.
Dover’s Weather Flight follows forecasts and guidance issued by the National Hurricane Center and assesses how the forecast could translate into local timing and effects for the installation.
“Dover AFB and all locations are required to follow guidance released by the National Hurricane Center,” said Tech. Sgt. Gregory Nelson, 436th Operations Support Squadron Weather Flight chief. “Most commonly, we will only deviate from the NHC if we know of a terrain or local effect and if it will amplify the effects of the hurricane and make it worse.”
Emergency Management continuously monitors tropical weather in coordination with Team Dover’s Weather Flight, the Delaware Emergency Management Agency, the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center. If a tropical system is projected to affect Dover, Emergency Management may recommend Hurricane Condition 5, or HURCON 5, approximately 96 hours before destructive winds are forecast to arrive.
“There are thousands of factors that all have to be taken into account, and every computer model run looks at them differently and forecasts something different,” Nelson said. Forecasts may change as meteorologists receive new information.
Before the storm
Families should assemble an emergency supply kit with several days of water and nonperishable food, required medications, flashlights, batteries, phone chargers, sanitation supplies, first-aid items, pet supplies and copies of important documents.
Team Dover members should develop a communication plan, identify an out-of-area emergency contact and determine where they would meet if separated. Delaware residents should know their evacuation zone and register for the Delaware Emergency Notification System, or DENS, which provides public warnings.
Team Dover members should also keep their Air Force Personnel Accountability and Assessment System (AFPAAS), virtual Record of Emergency Data (vRED) and Servicemembers’ Group Life Insurance (SGLI) information up-to-date.
Those who may need to evacuate should identify destinations and evacuation routes, fuel their vehicles, keep cash available and secure critical documents. Because Delaware’s primary evacuation routes use bridges, and bridges may close during high winds, leaving early can help families avoid dangerous delays.
“For those who evacuate, I’d say the biggest challenge is leaving too late,” Hanberry said. “Preparing now saves time when an evacuation becomes a reality.”
During and after the storm
Team Dover members should monitor official sources rather than relying on screenshots, rumors or unofficial social media posts.
“Weather forecasting is beyond critical to the decision-making process to shelter and protect both assets and personnel or relocate/evacuate,” Nelson said.
The Installation Commander has the authority to issue a Limited Evacuation Order, or LEO, for Dover AFB personnel. If an evacuation is ordered, members will receive instructions concerning authorized destinations, travel entitlements, accountability and return procedures.
“First and foremost, understand that reimbursement for incurred costs is not guaranteed if there is no LEO,” Hanberry said.
During the storm, personnel should remain indoors, stay away from windows and never drive through flooded roadways.
“The most dangerous mistake is not heeding the evacuation order,” Hanberry said. “It puts those individuals in a position of incredible risk.”
Members who evacuate should not expect to return until their leadership communicates that it is safe. Damaged utilities, bridges and roadways can make the period after a storm especially dangerous.
“The time after the storm can sometimes be the most dangerous,” Hanberry said. “Infrastructure, utilities, bridges and roadways may have all been damaged and make it unsafe for the general population to return.”
For current Dover Air Force Base emergency preparedness information, visit the Dover AFB Emergency Management webpage.